Американский Научный Журнал PREDICTION OF THE CONDITIONS FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGES, ON THE BASIS OF PHYSICOCHEMICAL MODELLING

18 American Scientific Journal № ( 28) / 2019
НАУКИ О ЗЕМЛЕ И ПЛАН ЕТЫ

UDC 551.510.41:546.26:551.583
PREDICTION OF THE CO NDITIONS FOR THE CLI MATE CHANGES, ON THE BASI S OF
PHYSICOCHEMICAL MODE LLING

Skvortsov V.A.
Institute o f Earth’s Crust SB PAS

Abstract . Prediction of climate change on the planet on the basis of physicochemical (thermodynamic)
modeling of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources has allowed
us the new, in contrast to previous research, to approa ch the solution to this problem and skorrekti –rovt equity
contribution of the main gases in global warming. A thermodynamic simulation of the emission of carbon,
methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbon in the surface layer of the atmosphere has bee n carried out up to
a height of 500 m at an average temperature of the Earth ,s surface of 15 0C and in lower layers of the troposphere
at a height of up to 2 km at a temperature of 3 0C and corresponding pressures of 1013.25 a nd 790 hPa. It was
ascertained t hat the planetary temperature might rise to 18.15 0C by 2100 with an increase in the CO 2 concentration
by two times in the surface atmosphere; with allowance for the additional contribution of CH 4, to 19.42 0C; with
allowance for N 2O, to 20.08 0C; and with al lowance for all gasses put together, including chlorofluorocarbons and
water vapor, to 22.68 0C. In the lower troposphere, with an increase in CO 2, the temperature might rise to 4.63 0C;
with an additional contribution of CH 4, to 5.83 0 C ;with allowance for N2O, to 6.50 0C; and with allowance for all
gases, including chlorofluorocarbons and water vapor, to 7.91 0C.
Keyword : Prediction, thermodynamic model, Climate, change, greenhouse gases, atmosphere

Introduction
M. I. Budyk o, summarizing the previous studies
[6], has written that atmospheric carbon dioxide, along
with water vapor, absorbs longwave radiation in the
atmosphere, and the altered concentration of this gas
leads to the climatic fluctuations; he has also suggested
tha t low content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
causes the Quaternary periods of glaciation. We [23]
have mentioned that if the carbon dioxide concentration
rises by 30% (of the values in 1973), the temperature
will increase. Our calculations have sho wn that the
carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere should
be equal to 0.042% for the ice -free regime, whereas for
the global glaciation it should be equal to 0.015%.
According to the data on the carbon dioxide
concentration [27] prior to the start of the upsurge in
the past decade, it was equal to 0.029% (1900 -1950).
Decrease in the carbon dioxide content to 0.013% in the
history of the Earth coincided with the latest glaciation,
that led to formation of the inland ice in the Northern
Hemisphere. T her e is no doubt, that the position of the
axis of the Earth relative to the Sun repeatedly changed
over the Quaternary. Concurrent variations [16] led to
the altered conditions of insolation, that had direct
impact on the climate. The studies on the radia tio n
regime of the Earth showed that the fluctuations of the
carbon dioxide content during that period were
sufficient for glaciation, although the contribution of
the volcanic activity, accompanied with the emission of
large amounts of aerosols into the a tmo sphere, that led
to altered transmission of longwave radiation, reaching
the surface of the Earth, is undeniable. Pronounced
activity of the subaerial, submarine volcanoes, and the
island arcs, is currently observed at 70% of the planet
surface (Fig. 1) [25]. The largest eruptions occur in
Kamchatka, Japan, Indonesia, the USA, Iceland. 76 of
the active volcanoes of the planet are located in
Indonesia. The activity of the submarine volcanoes is
more vigorous than the activity of the subaerial ones.
The na tur ally formed components of the atmosphere
still comprise a larger proportion of the air than the
technogenic ones (Table 1) [20].
The “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” [24]
provides 4 basic and 36 ad dit ional possible scenarios of
the emission of greenhouse gases by 2100. These
scenarios describe demographic, technological, and
economical events as the major driving forces of the
emissions. Today, mathematical models, that include
the composition and t he dynamics of the atmosphere
and the ocean, transfer of longwave and shortwave
radiation, and various feedback loops of the climate
systems [33], but do not factor in thermodynamic
conditions of accumulation of greenhouse gases, are
generally used for cli mat e predictions. We suggest an
integral approach, including physicochemical
modelling, based on the geological factors, such as
movement of the tectonic plates, major glaciations,
strong volcanic eruptions, and changes in the
temperature of major ocean cu rre nts. It should also be
noted that certain amounts of greenhouse gases are
emitted into the atmosphere due to the surface fires that,
according to the reports of the UN (FAO), annually
affect 350 million hectares, leading to additional
emission of as muc h a s 35 Gt of carbon per year.
Mathematic modelling [14] showed that 4 -fold increase
in the CO 2 content results in 4.1° С rise in the
temperature of the lower atmosphere. Climate changes,
related to the increased content of carbon dioxide,
primarily occur at h igh latitudes, whereas in the tropical
areas the thermal regime mostly remains unchanged.
On the basis of the publis hed data [15], the changes of
mean global temperature over the years and the CO 2
concentration were shown. For instance, the carbon
dioxide content is projected to increase from 300 to 900

American Scientific Journal № (2 8) / 2019 19

ppmv over the period from 2000 to 2100, whereas the
temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 ° С.
Substantiation of the problem, methods of
solution
Our research showed that the data on the climate
parameters , provided in the IPCC special reports, were
not always consistent. Therefore, these results require
essential adjustments, before they can be used for
predicting the probability of natural emergencies. To
remedy the situation, one should conduct further
research, implementing modern methods, including the
physicochemical, or thermodynamic modelling of
various systems, which is a valid method, w idely used
for scientific and practical studies [13, 26].
In terms of thermodynamic analysis of the
physicochemica l systems, the direction of chemical
reactions towards total or partial chemical equilibrium
is determined through minimization of the Gibbs f ree
energy (G) of the system for specified values of P, T,
and the initial chemical composition vector. The Gibbs
free energy at the equilibrium state is equal to
�= ∑ �������������������
�
������=1

where µi is the chemical potential, xi – number of
moles composin g the component, k – number of
chemical components of the system.
De spite the existence of certain published data on
the behavior of aerosol particles in thermodynamic
systems and their properties [18, 28 -34], we decided to
create an integral thermodynamic model of gas and
aerosol particles emission in the atmosphere and t he
troposphere. The model was based on the information
on man -induced emission, concentrations of CO 2, CH 4,
N2O, chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere over the
preceding period, given in t he emissions scenarios [9,
10, 24]. After the analysis, we chose the А2 scenario,
based on the idea of a heterogeneous world, where the
economic development is regionally oriented, fertility
patterns across different regions converge very slowly,
which res ults in continuously increasing population.
The emissions continuall y increase and reach the
maximal values by the end of the century: CO 2 – 28.8
Gt of carbon/year, CH 4 – 912.7 Gt/year, N 2O – 16 Mt
of nitrogen/year, CO - 2488 Mt/year [18].
Development of the physicochemical model
The established physicochemical model should be
able to provide an answer to the question on how the
temperature of the Earth surface will change at different
concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, chlorofluoroc arbons, ozone, water vapor,
compositions o f aerosols, pressure, and other natural
and anthropogenic factors of the atmosphere. The input
data included the results of the analysis of content of
aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer and
the low er troposphere (Table 2 [17]). Then, the b asic
physicochemical model was developed [23] on the
premises of the modified software system “Selektor -S”,
including the thermodynamic databases [26]. The
independent components of the matrix of the
physicochemica l model are Mg -Mn -Pb -Fe -Si-Al-Ca -
Ni-Zn -Cu -Cr -Cl-S-Na -K-N-C-Ar -H-O. The model
includes the water phase, the gas phase, and the solid
phase. The water phase is represented with 535
components. These are, mostly, cationic, anionic,
oxide, hydroxide, sulfate, carbonate, halide, nitrate,
silicon, and h ydrocarbon complexes, consisting of
combinations of the independent components. The gas
phase contains 286 components, including volatile
hydrocarbons С1-С20, С4-С12, aromatic hydrocarbons
С6-С10, oxygen -, ozone -, and sulfur -containing
complexes, chlorofluorocarbons and halogen -
containing compounds, found in the urban atmosphere.
The solid phases of aerosols consist of minute mineral
particles (total num ber of 176), mostly hydroxides,
carbonates, sulfates, chlorites, hydromicas, mixed -
layer minerals, and kaolin -montmorillonite group, i.e.,
all theoretically possible mineral compounds, that can
be observed near the Earth surface and are considered
to be na noparticles of the boundary layer and the lo wer
troposphere [22]. Prior to the model calculations, we
checked the consistency of the thermodynamic
constants of the substances, obtained from different
databases. The equilibrium temperature of the system,
as related to the changes in the carbon dioxid e
concentration under the isobaric conditions at the preset
constant enthalpy, was calculated through
minimization of negative entropy (thermodynamic
potential SP). The mathematical representation of the
problem of minimal Sp can be written as follows [26] :

= arg min {fSP (T) / x  M 0 (SP), T  }, = arg min {G(x) / x  X(S P), T = }.
Here : f (SP) = |H - H0 | и
where T is temperature, P – pressure, H0 – enthalpy of the reagents, H – enthalpy of the chemical products,
M – point set of the domain of the function fs(T), D T – interval of the temperature calculation, M*(S p) = Arg
min {G(x) /x ϵ M1},
; X (S p) = {x /x ϵ M1, H -H0= 0}, T=T 0, P =P 0.

The computational algorithm of the Sp problem
solution is based on the approach of single -objective
minimization of f (SP) through the golden section
search. The initial parameters included the lower and
the upper limits of the temperature range, confining the
simulated process, precision of calculations (degrees
Celsius), initial temperature, and the pressure of the
reagents. T DT0 x T T D
T 0
0


20 American Scientific Journal № ( 28) / 2019
Results of modelling
Current state of the atmosphere was chosen as the
initial state for the phy sicochemical modelling of the
emiss ion of carbon, methane, nitrous oxide,
chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, water vapor, and aerosols
in the surface layer and the lower troposphere. The
initial values were set, as follows: near the Earth
surface – mean temperatu re of 15 ° С, atmospheric
pressure – 1013.25 hPa, content of carbon dioxide over
the period of 2010 -2011 – approximately 0.04%; in the
lower troposphere, up to 2 km altitude – temperature of
3 ° С, pressure – 790 hPa, CO 2 concentration -
approximately 0.03%. During the simulation, the initial
concentrations of the compounds were changed,
imitating the emission of carbon, methane, nitrous
oxide, chlorofluorocarbons and other particles in the
atmosphere from natural and technogenic sources:
volcanic eruptions, fossil fuel , and surface biota. When
carbon reacts with oxygen, according to the equations:
2C + O 2 = 2CO (partial combustion)
2CO + O 2 = 2CO 2 (complete combustion)
carbon is combusted (oxidized), producing carbon
dioxide. The CO 2 concentration increases, and the
tem perature near the Earth surface rises (Fig. 2). The
results of simulation were compared to the data on the
CO 2 content in the atmosphere, provided by the
preceding researchers [4-6, 19, 35]. At the initial steps
of modelling certain values were close, but, over the
course of time, when other factors were considered,
these values became substantially different.
The physicochemical modelling has shown that
the temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere
(Fig. 2, a and b) will increase by 1° С, given th e upsurge
in the carbon dioxide content alone to 0.05% by 2040;
at the CO 2 increase to 0.07% by 2080 the temperature
will rise by 2° С, while by 2100, when the CO 2
concentration reaches 0.084%, the temperature at the
planet surface will be close to 18.16 °С. Average
gradient of the temperature changes over a decade is
0.03 ° С per year. Certain changes will also occur in the
lower troposphere (Fig. 2, c and d) over this period: by
2040, given the CO 2 content of 0.0365%, the
temperature at approxima tely 2 km w ill increase by
0.3° С, by 2070 – by 0.5 ° С, and by 2100 – by 1.62 ° С,
reaching 4.62 ° С.
Decrease in the carbon dioxide concentration in
the surface layer of the atmosphere to 0.015 -0.010%
will lead to fall in the Earth surface temperature to 13 .3-
13.4 ° С. Over the same period, the СО 2 concentration
in the troposphere will decrease from 0.02 to 0.01%,
leading to the temperature of 1.7 ° С, which, according
to the results of previous studies [6], can lead to another
glaciation. The period of time b etween the values of the
CO 2 concentration changes, from the beginning of the
latest major glaciation in the history of the Earth
(Lower Pleistocene) to the industrial revolution, is
approximately 1 million years long.
Along with carbon dioxide, methane, n itrous
oxi de, chlorofluorocarbons, water vapor, ozone, and
other gases play a certain role in the changes of the
planet temperature. One ton of carbon equivalent has
been accepted as a unit of greenhouse gases, therefore,
prior to introducing the concentra tions of t hese
substances into the model, they were recalculated as
additional CO 2 through the valid correction factors
(global warming potentials), imposed in 1997 by the
Kyoto Protocol [21] .
Methane is the second most important gas after
carbon dioxide, that influ ences the planet temperature.
Its relation to the climate is further discussed in studies
[1, 8, 11]. The methane content in the modern
atmosphere is 0.0002%, which is 200 times lower than
the content of CO 2, yet its contribution to dissipation
and accumul ation of heat, radiated by the Earth surface,
warmed with the Sun, is 21 -25 times higher than the
contribution of carbon dioxide. Methane is emitted into
the atmosphere by natural and anthropogenic sources.
Methane spends 8 -12 years in the atmosp here in a
stable condition, then it is destructed with [OH] group
and is removed. It is mostly accumulated in the surface
layer, the source of which is ozone, contained in the
atmosphere. Considering the combined contribution of
methane and CO 2, the temper ature of t he surface layer
of the planet atmosphere (Fig. 2 a, b) in 2000 could be
16.11 ° С, increasing to 17.17 ° С by 2050, to 18.26 ° С
by 2080, and to 19.42 ° С by 2100. The temperature of
the lower troposphere, at the altitude of 2 km, was close
to 4 ° С (3.96 ° С) in 2010, rising to 5 ° С in 2090, and
almost to 6 ° С (5.83 ° С) by 2100. Annual increase in
the methane concentration will be 0.000013% by 2030,
and 0.000025% by 2100. It will undoubtedly lead to
alterations in the gas composition of the atmosphere ,
immediat ely followed with increasing concentration of
ozone in the atmosphere and lower content of hydroxyl.
The third gas influencing the planet temperature is
nitrous oxide (N 2O). Its role in the Earth climate system
has been studied by a number of re searchers [7].
Nitrous oxide is a relatively inert compound and its
content in the atmosphere is lower than the
concentrations of such radioactively active gases, as
methane and car bon dioxide. Current content of nitrous
oxide in the atmosphere is 0.00003 %. It is 6 times
lower than the methane content, and more than 1000
times lower than the carbon dioxide concentration.
Average lifespan of an N2O molecule in the atmosphere
is appro ximately 180 years. Due to the long residence
in the atmosphere and high gl obal warming potential
over 100 years (which is 310 times higher than the
carbon dioxide potential), nitrous oxide plays certain
role in the climate changes. Nitrous oxide is mostly
emitted into the atmosphere by natural (60%) and
anthropogenic (40%) sourc es. Considering the N 2O
impact in addition to CO 2,, the temperature of the
surface layer of the planet atmosphere (Fig. 2. a and b)
in 2000 was 15.6 ° С, rising to as much as 16.2 ° С by
2030, to 17 ° С by 2060, and to 18.7 ° С by 2100. Mean
annual input of N 2O to the atmosphere over the period
from 2000 to 2100 is 12 ppb (0.0000012%). The
temperature of the troposphere at the altitude of 2 km
(Fig. 2. c and d) in 2010, considerin g the impact of
nitrous oxide, was 3.6 ° С, rising to 4 ° С in 2080, and to
5.3 ° С by 2100.
Apart from the discussed gases, various
halocarbons are emitted by anthropogenic sources to
the atmosphere. Chlorofluorocarbons (freons), being a
part of this group, are chemically inert. They get into

American Scientific Journal № (2 8) / 2019 21

the lower layers of the troposphere and slowl y rise to
the stratosphere, where they are decomposed under
solar ultraviolet radiation, producing chlorine atoms
that destroy the ozone layer. It may take up to 100 years
for freons to vanish from the atmosphere. Production,
consumption, import and export of freons are regulated
by the Montreal Protocol. In order to assess the impact
on the global warming and temperature changes, the
concentrations of CFC -11 in the atmosphere were
studied [9]. This is the most typical of all
chlorofluorocarbons, and it was chosen for a reason.
The rates of changes of the CFC -11 concentration over
the period from 2000 to 2100 vary from -50 pptv to -10
pptv and probably lower. Even at these valu es, despite
higher warming potential than in CO 2, its contribution
to the increasi ng temperature of the surface layers of
the atmosphere (Fig. 2. a and b) turns out to be
insignificant, and the curves representing the changes
in its concentration are simil ar to those for CO 2. In the
lower troposphere (Fig. 2 c, d) its impact is also bar ely
noticeable: by 2020 its combination with CO 2 can
increase the temperature by 0.1 ° С only, raising it to
4.79 ° С by 2100.
Two varieties of ozone can be found in the
atmosp here: tropospheric ozone in the surface layer,
and stratospheric ozone in the upper troposphere, at the
boundary of the stratosphere. The behavior of
tropospheric ozone in the atmosphere and its role in the
photochemical reactions has been earlier discusse d by
the researchers [2, 3]. The ozone concentrations in the
lower troposphere, according to the projected A2
scenario and the thermodynamic modelling, change
from 0.00 0003 to 0.0001%. Higher concentrations of
methane lead to increase in the ozone content in the
troposphere. The rise over the past decades was 1 -2%
per year. The ability of ozone to absorb longwave
radiation and reside in the troposphere for several
months allows to assess its contribution to the
temperature rise without considering the globa l
warming potential. Its future concentrations will
depend on the emissions of methane and pollutants.
Water vapor emerges in the atmosphere as a result
of evaporation from the water surface, moist soil, and
plants. The content of water vapor in the air n ear the
Earth surface is 0.2% on average at high latitudes,
under low humidity, and 2.5% in the tropical areas.
After evaporation of water from the Earth surface into
the atmosphere, it is condensed, thus transferring as
much as 40% of heat to the lower la yers of the
troposphere (due to convection). Therefore, at first,
evaporating water slightly decreases the temperature of
the Earth surface, later warming the surface l ayers of
the atmosphere and the Earth surface up (due to the
emission of heat during the vapor condensation). Water
vapor, carbon dioxide and methane form strong
feedback loops, that lead to indirect influence of water
vapor on global warming.
Concerning t he simulation of water evaporation
from the land and the ocean to the atmosphere, it sho uld
be noted that, under the changes of the ratio of the gas
phase and the liquid phase, the air is saturated with
water vapor, given pH from 10.832 to 8.390 and Eh
fro m 0,633 to 0,734 V (Table 3). The water vapor
content changes from 0.11 to 1.09%, wherea s its partial
pressure – from 1.7 to 17.2 hPa. These processes occur
under the relative air humidity ranging from 10 to
100%, and the absolute air humidity – from 1.3 t o 12.9
g/m 3. Over the whole range of parameters, the water
phase contains sulfates (mole s): CaSO 40 - 10 -9, NaSO 4-
- 10 -9, SO 4-2 - 10 -11, chlorides CaCl 20 - 10 -8, MgCl + - 10 -
9, carbonates MgCO 3 - 10 -8, and other compounds in
lesser concentrations.
It should be noted that the mechanism of SO 2
oxidation here, in the cloud droplets, is strongly
influenced by oxygen -containing complexes, such as
OH -, H 2O2 and ozone, gradually transforming SO 2 to
H2SO 4, which is present in the system in significantly
lower concen trations than the previously mentio ned
compounds. As pH of the solution decreases, the rate
of SO 2 oxidation drops. Nanoparticles of chalcedony,
chlorite, and seladonite are observed in the solid phase
of the atmosphere; under the sub -alkaline, close to
neutral conditions – only chlorite an d seladonite. Close
to 100% content of gas in the atmosphere at the relative
humidity of less than 10 % corresponds to the arid hot
climate of the southern tropical areas, whereas at the
relative humidity of 90 -100% – to a very humid
climate.
Continuous c irculation of the air currents in the
atmosphere, saturated with aerosols, that can be
considered small independent three -phase
physicochemical systems, is accompanied with
alterations of the thermodynamic conditions (Т, P, С,
pH, Eh, and phase composition ), leading to decay of
aerosols, subsequent nucleation, coagulation and
transfer. These are the reasons for the changes in the
composition of aerosols and in the concentrations of the
components in the atmosphere. The ana lysis shows that
the sulfate aeroso ls have the strongest impact on the
climate changes of the planet. During the atmospheric
transfer, submicron particles of the sulfate aerosol
dissipate a certain part of radiation back to the
surrounding space, whereas t he particles of industrial
carbon a bsorb large proportion of shortwave solar
radiation and influence the flow of longwave radiation
from the Earth. Large amounts of aerosols have an
impact on the vertical stability of the atmosphere. The
aerosol particles falling on the surface decrease the
snow albedo, eventually leading to climate changes.
The absence of aerosols of volatile hydrocarbons
in the surface layers of the atmosphere and the
troposphere in the solution, obtained through
thermodynamic modelling, can be explained by their
high reac tive capacity and transfer rates, which is why
these substances are easily dissipated and, due to their
low concentrations (except for methane), almost do not
participate in chemical reactions, and thus are not
observed i n the form of stable products.
Conc lusion
Thermodynamic modelling of the greenhouse
gases emission to the atmosphere allowed us, in the
contrast to the preceding researcher [12], to implement
a new approach to the solution of this problem and to
adjust the contributions of the major gases to the global
warming.

22 American Scientific Journal № ( 28) / 2019
Contributions of the greenhouse gases to the
global warming (%) in the surface layers of the
atmosphere are: CO 2 - 41, H 2O – 32, CH 4 – 16, N 2O -7,
chlorofluorocarbon – 3, and ozone – less than 1; in the
lower troposphere: CO 2 - 33, H 2O – 25, CH 4 – 24, N 2O
-14, chlorofluorocarbon – 4, and ozone – less than 1.
As for the influence of the aerosol nanoparticles on
climate, it is mostly related to the process of cloud
formation and precipitation, and depe nds on the aerosol
compositi on, changing under the impact of the
environmental factors – solar radiation, water vapor,
and other gases. If sulfate complexes, dissipating the
greenhouse gases, prevail in the composition of the
aerosol particles, they can ev en impede the global
warming .
This scenario implies slow global warming that
can cause flooding of the marginal areas of the
continents and retraction of permafrost 100 -200 km to
the North. Only the natural factors can promote the
global warming in this ca se. For instance, larger
amo unts of aerosols in the atmosphere due to intense
surface or coincident, evenly distributed over the planet
volcanic eruptions, decreasing albedo due to
urbanization of the Earth surface will lead to increase
in the surface temp erature and can influence th e climate
of the Earth over a century. As for the technogenic
factors (even if we admit possible development of
certain regions, surface fires, and emergencies at large
industrial objects), they will not lead to 1.5 -2-fold
incre ase in the carbon dioxide em issions into the
atmosphere over the stated period of time.

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23. Skvortsov V.A., Chudnenko K.V.
Thermodynamic model of the greenhouse gases in the
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okeana. 2014. V. 27. № 9., p. 833 -840.
24. IPCC Special Report . Emissions Scenarios ,
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25. Physiographic Atlas of the World .- M.: the
USSR Academy of Sciences and Chief Directorate of
Geodesy and Cartography under the Council of
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26. Chudnenko K.V. Thermodynamic
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applications /ed. in chief V.N. Sharapov Rus. Acad .
Sci ., Sib . Br . – Novosibirsk , Academ. publ. “Geo”,
2010, 287 p.
27. Inadvertent climate modification. - The MIT
Press. Cambridge Massachusetts, 1971, 308 p.
28. Clegg S.L., Brimblecome P. and Wexter
A.S.: A thermo dynamic model of system H +–NH 4+–
SO 42- – NO 3‾ – H2O at tropospheric temperatures. - J.
Phys. Chem. A 102, 1998, p. 2127 - 2154.
29. Clegg S.L., Brimblecome P. and Wexter
A.S.: A thermodynamic model of system H +–NH 4+–
Na +–SO 42‾– NO 3‾ – Cl – H2O at 298.15 K. - J. Phys.
Chem. A 102, 1998, p. 2155 -2171.

American Scientific Journal № (2 8) / 2019 23

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Thermodynamic modeling of aqueous aerosols
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713 -738.
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Thermodynamic modeling of aqu eous aerosols
containing electrolytes and dissolved organic
compounds. II. An extended Zdanovskii. Stokes –
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Table 1
AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCES RELEASED INTO THE A TMOSPHERE OF THE EARTH
Particles < 20 microns -radius Number, n х10 6, tons/year
Natural
Soil dust and products of rock weathering 100 -500
Smoke of fires and waste incineration 3-150
Sea salt 300
Particles of volcanic eruptions 25 -150
Particles, resulting from interactions of gaseous components 345 -1100
Including:
sulfates from hydrogen sulfide 130 -200
ammonium salts from ammonia 80 -270
nitrates from nitrogen oxides 60 -430
hydrocarbons from plants 75 -200
Technogenic
Dust 10 -90
Particles of gaseous components
Including: 175 -325
sulfates from s ulfur dioxide 130 -200
nitrates from nitrogen oxides 30 -35
hydrocarbons 15 -90

Table 2
CONTENT OF ELEMENTS IN AEROSOLS , µG/M 3


Sampling
area
M
g Мn Рb Fe Si Al Са Ni Zn Сu Сr Сl S Na К
Surface
layer 1.2 0.02 0.07 1.
5
5.
0 0.4 1.
7
0.0
3 0.1 0.03 0.03 1.5
2
0.2
4
0.3
8
0.3
4
Lower
troposphe
re
0.2 0.00
3
0.00
8
0.
6
1.
0
0.1
5
0.
2
0.0
7
0.1
5
0.00
8
0.00
1
0.2
1
0.1
1
0.1
4
0.0
9

24 American Scientific Journal № ( 28) / 2019
Table 3
SATURATION OF THE AI R WITH WATER VAPOR
Phase composition of the
atmosphere, %
pH Eh,
В
Content in the air, % Partial
pressure of
water
vapor, hPa
Relative
humidity,
%
Absolute
humidity,
g/m 3
gas liquid solid water
vapor
dropping -
liquid
water
99.99
99.99
99.99
99.99
99.99
99. 99
99.99
99.99
99.99
99.99
7.8·10 -
7
8.2·10 -
7
1.7·10 -
6
1.9·10 -
6
2.1·10 -
6
2.2·10 -
6
2.7·10 -
6
3.3·10 -
6
3.3·10 -
5
2.2·10 -
3
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.6 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.4)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
(1.8 -
2.0)·10 -7
10.83
10.56
9.97
9.84
9.69
9.63
9.49
9.40
9.14
8.39
0.63
0.64
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.69
0.73
0.11
0.23
0.33
0.43
0.58
0.65
0.78
0.87
0.91
1.09
8.0·10 -8
1.1·10 -7
3.5·10 -7
4.6·10 -7
6.7·10 -7
7.9·10 -7
1.3·10 -6
1.9·10 -6
3.2·10 -5
2.2·10 -3
1.7
3.5
5.1
6.8
9.1
10.3
12.4
13.7
16.4
17.2
10
20
30
40
53
60
72
80
90
100
1.3
2.7
3.9
5.1
6.7
7.7
9.3
10.3
11.5
12.9

Fig. 1. Geographic distribution of volcanoes (Physiographic Atlas of the World 1964)

American Scientific Journal № (2 8) / 2019 25


a

b

c

d
Fig. 1. Geographic distribution of volcanoes [25].
Fig. 2. Changes in the concentrations of the gases in the atmosphere and the temperature over the years,
calculated on the basi s of thermodynamic modelling.
a, b – the surface layer of the atmosphere; c, d – the lower troposphere.

GEOSTRUCTURAL WAY OF COM BUSTIBLE GAS MIGRATI ON INTO DONBASS COAL MINES

Taranik Alexander
Master of science,
YUZHNIIGIPROGAZ

Abstract . Theoretical a nd practical prerequisites for connection of migration zones and combustible gas
accumulation in coal -rock mass with the features of crystalline basement geology and subsurface stress state are
considered.
Patterns, criteria, and principles of formation of a minefield with abnormal gas content caused by the influx
of hydrocarbon gases from deep –laid deposits have been ident ified. Considering this, early forecast of the presence
of areas with abnormal accumulation of hydrocarbon gas becomes possible.
Keywor ds: Geological structures, gas anomaly prediction, mine gas explosions, mine safety.

Coal mining industry of any country is a critical
component of the fuel and energy complex; it provides
the raw materials to power sector, metallurgy, chemical
sector, a nd other industrial sectors. Coal mining
industry, having been victim of the severe situation
relat ed to reconstruction, sees a steady increase of the
volumes of coal mining after long —term period of
production output fall, and thus it is becoming one of
the key branches of economy.
But, to do the extended mining works on the depth
they are currently p erformed at including severe
subsurface conditions, several significant problems
related to production and science are to be reviewed.
Among most critical wa ys to solve the problems in 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Y e a rs
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
C
O
2, %
prizem naya
C O 2
C O 2+ C H 4
C O 2+ N 2O
C O 2+ C H 4+ N 2O
C O 2+ C F C l3
A ll g a se s 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Y e a rs
14
16
18
20
22
T
e
m
p
e
ra
tu
re
, 0C
C O 2
C O 2+ C H 4
C O 2+ N 2O
C O 2+ C H 4+ N 2O
C O 2+ C F C l3
A ll g a se s 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Y e a rs
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
C
O
2
, %
tropo
C O 2
C O 2+ C H 4
C O 2+ N 2O
C O 2+ C H 4+ N 2O
C O 2+ C F C l3
a ll g ases 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Y e a rs
2
3
4
5
6
7
T
e
m
p
e
ra
tu
re
, 0C
C O 2
C O 2+ C H 4
C O 2+ N 2O
C O 2+ C H 4+ N 2O
C O 2+ C F C l3
A ll g a se s